Tropical Depression Seven Forms, Ending Atlantic Storm Drought: What to Expect from Future Gabrielle
After a nearly three-week lull during peak hurricane season, a new tropical depression, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed in the central Atlantic Ocean. This system is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gabrielle, potentially becoming a hurricane by the weekend. The formation of this storm ends an unusual period of inactivity in the Atlantic.
Gabrielle's Projected Path and Potential Impact
As of Wednesday morning, Tropical Depression Seven was located 1,185 miles from the Caribbean’s northern Leeward Islands, with sustained winds of 35 mph. The National Hurricane Center forecasts it to reach tropical storm status by Wednesday afternoon and strengthen into a hurricane as it tracks west-northwest. Current projections indicate that the United States is unlikely to experience direct impacts, but monitoring for possible track shifts is advised. High surf and dangerous rip currents are possible impacts for islands in the eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm's future path will be influenced by high pressure systems. Another tropical wave emerging from Africa is also being monitored.
The Unusual Atlantic Quiet Period
The Atlantic experienced a storm-free period from August 29 through September 16, marking only the second time since 1950 that such inactivity has occurred during this peak period. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, notes that the last similar event was in 1992, following Hurricane Andrew. Several factors contributed to this quiet period.
- Strong vertical wind shear hindered storm development.
- Persistent dry and stable air across the tropical Atlantic suppressed storm formation.
- A drop in rainfall in West Africa reduced the number of tropical waves.
Why Has the Hurricane Season Been So Quiet Until Now?
While sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal, which typically fuels storm development, other atmospheric factors have been limiting storm formation. Wind shear and dry, stable air have created a hostile environment for tropical systems moving off the coast of Africa.
Looking Ahead: A Potentially Active Late Season
Forecasters are still anticipating potential activity in the second half of September and early October. Although Gabrielle is not currently expected to impact the mainland U.S., the situation could change. Another disturbance near Africa is being monitored. According to meteorologist Tiffany Savona, it's crucial to remain prepared and ensure supplies are in order, even after the statistical peak of hurricane season.
Historical Context and Predictions
Typically, the seventh tropical storm of the season forms by September 3, making this storm approximately two weeks behind schedule. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had previously predicted an above-normal season, with 13 to 18 named storms. While the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, the period from mid-August to mid-October is usually the most active. Only Erin has become a hurricane this year. The Colorado State University report highlighted the "insufficient instability" as a key factor influencing storm development this season.
