Crypto's 'Hottest Trade' Plagued by mNAV Miscalculations: DeFiLlama Analyst Reveals Valuation Pitfalls

Decoding mNAV: A Guide to Navigating Digital Asset Treasury Valuations

Digital asset treasuries (DATs) are gaining traction, with over 200 companies holding billions in crypto tokens. However, inconsistencies in calculating **mNAV (market-cap-to-net-asset-value multiple)** are creating valuation discrepancies. This guide, based on analysis by pseudonymous **DefiLlama** analyst Meta, aims to clarify mNAV calculations for informed trading.

Understanding mNAV: The Core Metric

mNAV measures the equity value paid for each dollar of crypto a company holds. A proper calculation is critical, given that million-dollar investment decisions are being made based on this data. The basic formula is:

mNAV = Fully Diluted Market Cap ÷ Treasury Value (USD)

• 0.5x mNAV: Paying 50 cents for every $1 of tokens (a discount).
• 1.0x mNAV: Market cap equals treasury holdings (equal value).
• 3.0x mNAV: Paying $3 for every $1 of tokens (a premium).

Three Lenses for Calculating mNAV

mNAV can be calculated using different share counts, each offering a distinct perspective:

• Realized: Based on shares that currently exist.
• Realistic: Includes realized shares plus in-the-money dilution (options, warrants, convertibles, RSUs).
• Maximum: Considers all shares that could potentially be issued.

Using these calculations interchangeably leads to miscommunication and poor decision making, which could be harmful for your investments. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the different values.

The chosen lens significantly impacts the perceived value. A "realized" calculation might indicate a discount, while a "maximum" calculation often reveals a premium.

Case Study: The HYPE DAT Ecosystem

The **HYPE DAT ecosystem** illustrates the importance of accurate mNAV calculations. Key players in this ecosystem include:

• HYPD (Hyperion DeFi)
• SONN (soon to merge into Hyperliquid Strategies, HSI)
• LGHL (Lion Group)

Depending on the share count used, these stocks can appear as either deep discounts or expensive premiums. For example, SONN's mNAV can range from 0.06x to 5.27x based on the denominator used.

Common Pitfalls in mNAV Calculation

Several factors can lead to incorrect mNAV calculations:

• ADS Math (LGHL): One American Depositary Share (ADS) equals 2,500 ordinary shares. Mixing these up drastically alters the market cap.
• Pre-merge vs. Post-merge (SONN): SONN's share count changes significantly after merging with HSI. Using the wrong count distorts the mNAV.
• Resale Registrations: Filings registering shares for resale belong in "maximum" calculations, not "realized" counts.
• Opacity (LGHL): Complex filings and shifting structures make LGHL particularly challenging to analyze.
• Finance Portals: Platforms like Yahoo Finance often display inconsistent or outdated share data.

mNAV Examples: HYPD, SONN/HSI, and LGHL

HYPD ($HYPD)

Treasury: 1,535,772 HYPE × $48 = $73,717,056

Price: $10.34

HYPD trades at a discount (0.79x) on realized shares, but at a premium (5-8x) when dilution is factored in.

SONN → HSI ($SONN)

Treasury: 12,600,000 HYPE × $48 = $604,800,000

Price: $5.66

Using today's share count, SONN appears heavily discounted (0.06x), but the post-merge base reveals a significant premium (5.27x).

LGHL ($LGHL)

Treasury:

• 194,726 HYPE × $48 = $9,346,848
• 6,707 SOL × $220 = $1,475,540
• Total = $10,822,388

Price: $1.43

LGHL appears deeply discounted on realized/realistic shares (under 0.1x), but shows a premium on maximum shares (4x). The choice of share count is critical.

The Yahoo Finance Trap on LGHL

Yahoo Finance often displays misleading information for LGHL:

• Float: 904.93M
• Shares outstanding: 3.95M
• Implied shares outstanding: 476.76k

This leads to wildly different mNAV calculations, emphasizing the need for reliable data sources.

Yahoo Finance mixes units and lags filings. Always go back to the SEC.

mNAV Cross-Ticker Snapshot

Key:

• <1x = Discount
• 1x = Equal
• >1x = Premium

How to Calculate mNAV Yourself

1. Get the value of the total holdings of the token treasury: list tokens from filings, multiply by price, add them.
2. Anchor the share count: use the latest filing that states “As of [date], there were X shares outstanding.”
3. Pick your lens: realized, realistic, or maximum.
4. Match units: if the company trades as ADS, convert ordinary to ADS.
5. If a stock split or reverse split occurred, adjust all prior filings to the new ratio, but leave later filings as reported.
6. If a merger changes shares, use the post-merge base.
7. Run the math: Marketcap = price x shares. mNAV = marketcap ÷ treasury.
8. Optional: add debt and subtract cash to the marketcap to calculate Enterprise Value is what **MSTR** uses to calculate for the EV mNAV. Enterprise value = Market cap + debt - cash. EV mNAV = (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) ÷ Treasury Value.

Why mNAV Matters

mNAV is the backbone of DAT trading, it gives insight into if one is buying at a discount, equal value, or premium. Avoid chasing narratives and trade based on actual numbers.

Sloppy calculations lead to self-deception. Always double-check the data and methods to avoid wrong valuations. Consider relying on **DeFiLlama** for more reliability.

Short Glossary

• DAT (Digital Asset Treasury): A public company that holds crypto tokens on its balance sheet.
• mNAV (market-cap-to-net-asset-value multiple): Market cap divided by the value of tokens held.
• ADS (American Depositary Share): A U.S.-traded security representing a set number of ordinary shares. For LGHL, 1 ADS = 2,500 ordinary shares.
• Realized Shares: Shares that exist today.
• Realistic Shares: Realized shares plus in-the-money dilution.
• Maximum Shares: All shares that could potentially print.
• Enterprise Value mNAV: the version MSTR uses. It adjusts the denominator by adding cash and subtracting debt from the token holdings. DeFiLlama’s method of calculating mNAV does not use cash or debt.