Mamdani Maintains Strong Lead in NYC Mayoral Race After Adams' Exit, Analysts See No Major Shift

Zohran Mamdani Maintains Lead in NYC Mayoral Race After Eric Adams Withdraws

Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic socialist candidate, holds a significant lead over Andrew Cuomo in the race for New York City Mayor, even after Eric Adams suspended his reelection bid. Political analysts suggest it would take a dramatic shift for Cuomo to overtake Mamdani before the November election.

Adams' Departure Unlikely to Sway Mamdani's Momentum

Eric Adams' decision to withdraw from the mayoral race is unlikely to significantly impact Mamdani's strong candidacy. According to political analysts on Monday, September 29, Mamdani's campaign continues to gain momentum due to his focus on affordability and grassroots support. The absence of Adams may consolidate the anti-Mamdani vote behind Cuomo, but analysts believe it won't be enough to close the gap.

Basil Smikle, a political analyst and professor at Columbia University's School of Professional Studies, stated, "Mamdani is well ahead of Cuomo and something would have to dramatically change the narrative of the race for there to be a shift in the polling to suggest Mamdani could lose, and I don't see that happening right now."

Polling Data Shows Mamdani in a Strong Position

Before Adams' withdrawal, a Marist University poll indicated that Mamdani had 45 percent support compared to Cuomo's 24 percent. Adams and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa trailed with 9 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Even in scenarios where Adams withdrew, polls showed Mamdani retaining a significant lead.

While no new polls have been conducted since Adams' withdrawal, existing data suggests any gains for Cuomo would be incremental. The removal of Adams from the race does provide a boost for Cuomo but it is unlikely to topple Mamdani's front-runner position, according to polling experts.

Fundraising Advantage and Key Endorsements

Mamdani has a substantial fundraising advantage over Cuomo, having collected approximately $15 million compared to Cuomo's $9 million during the summer. This financial support is largely attributed to a record number of small donations. Furthermore, Mamdani has secured endorsements from prominent figures like former Vice President Kamala Harris and New York Governor Kathy Hochul. The endorsements from Harris and Hochul signal broad support from the Democratic party.

Trump's Influence and Mamdani's Response

Donald Trump's involvement in the race, including his criticism of Mamdani, could potentially backfire, giving Mamdani an unintended boost. Mamdani has directly addressed Trump's influence, stating that the president and his billionaire donors "will not dictate" the outcome of the election. Trump has mocked Curtis Sliwa which could lead to some of his supporters switching to Cuomo which would create a potential center-right coalition.

Mamdani accused Trump of trying to manipulate the race by backing certain candidates and undermining his campaign for affordability. He stated, "Donald Trump and his billionaire donors may be able to determine the actions of Eric Adams and Andrew Cuomo, but they will not dictate the results of this election."

Analyst Perspectives on the Race

Political analysts offer varying perspectives on the impact of Adams' departure. While some, like Rev. Al Sharpton, believe it could make the race more competitive, others maintain that Mamdani remains the clear front-runner. The consensus remains that to shift the temperature of the race Andrew Cuomo would need to make a compelling case.

Patrick Gaspard, a former US ambassador and adviser to Mamdani, believes Adams' compromised position weakened him. Others are more skeptical stating that because of Adam's low disapproval rating his departure will not dramatically shake up the race.