Tilray's Meteoric Rise: Trump's CBD Endorsement and Insider Confidence Fuel Cannabis Comeback
On September 29, 2025, Tilray Brands (TLRY) experienced a significant surge, jumping 41% in a single day. This dramatic increase was driven by a combination of factors, including positive remarks from former President Donald Trump regarding CBD, substantial insider buying, and renewed optimism in the cannabis sector.
Trump's CBD Endorsement Sparks Market Rally
According to Quiver Quantitative, TLRY’s trading volume exceeded $202 million as investors reacted to Donald Trump’s comments on social media promoting the potential health benefits of cannabidiol (CBD), particularly for seniors. Trump suggested that CBD could revolutionize healthcare for older Americans by slowing disease progression and offering alternatives to traditional prescription drugs. This endorsement fueled hopes of regulatory reform and potential reclassification of cannabis, impacting the entire industry.
The positive sentiment extended beyond Tilray, with cannabis stocks such as Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, and Aurora Cannabis all experiencing double-digit gains. The AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF jumped significantly, and analysts predicted a substantial quarterly gain. This sector-wide rally underscores the sensitivity of cannabis stocks to political developments.
Potential Regulatory Shifts and Section 280E
Trump's remarks hint at a potential reclassification of cannabis, which could address one of the sector's biggest challenges: Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code. This provision prevents cannabis companies from claiming standard business tax deductions, hindering their financial growth. If reclassification occurs, companies like Tilray could access a broader investor base and expand their operations more effectively. The SAFE Banking Act, which would allow cannabis businesses access to traditional financial services, may also gain renewed support.
Insider Confidence: Leadership Bets on Tilray's Future
Over the past six months, Tilray’s leadership has demonstrated confidence in the company’s prospects through significant share purchases. CEO Irwin D. Simon acquired 165,000 shares, CFO Carl A. Merton bought 33,500 shares, and Global General Counsel Mitchell Gendel purchased 6,000 shares. These insider buys, with zero sales, signal strong belief in the company's future growth potential, especially compared to the sector's uncertain nature.
Insider buying is often seen as a positive indicator, suggesting that those closest to the business anticipate future success. These purchases align with the broader industry momentum, boosting investor confidence and reinforcing a bullish outlook for Tilray.
Institutional Investment: Hedge Funds Adjust Positions
Institutional investors are also adjusting their portfolios in response to the evolving cannabis landscape. Data indicates that many funds added Tilray shares, while others reduced their positions, reflecting the sector's inherent volatility and varying perspectives among money managers.
Notable moves include Citadel Advisors LLC significantly increasing its stake and Tidal Investments LLC expanding its holdings. Conversely, Highbridge Capital Management LLC and Aristeia Capital, L.L.C. exited their positions entirely. This shifting investment landscape demonstrates the risks and opportunities present in the cannabis space.
Analyst Sentiment: Cautiously Optimistic
Analyst price targets for Tilray reflect cautious optimism. In the last six months, analysts such as Kaumil Gajrawala of Jefferies set a target of $2.00, while Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler pegged the stock at $1.00, with a median target of $1.50. This indicates a balance between the potential upside from regulatory changes and the ongoing challenges of profitability in the cannabis market.
Sector-Wide Impact and Future Outlook
Tilray’s surge has had ripple effects across the cannabis sector, boosting companies like Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, and Aurora Cannabis. Sector ETFs such as MSOS and AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF have also seen significant gains. The renewed interest could signal a turning point for cannabis stocks, which have faced regulatory and market skepticism for years.
Despite the optimism, risks remain. Regulatory change is not guaranteed, and past promises have not always materialized. Investors should remain vigilant and monitor legislative developments closely. However, the convergence of insider confidence, institutional repositioning, and high-level political support creates a potentially transformative moment for cannabis investing, with Tilray at the forefront.
Tilray’s recent surge illustrates the sector's sensitivity to political signals and insider activity. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this optimism translates into sustained growth or if regulatory obstacles will hinder the cannabis industry's advancement once again.
