Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon Prediction, Pick, and Odds for Noche UFC
Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon are set to clash in a lightweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night 259, also known as Noche UFC, at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The fight is scheduled for Saturday, September 13th and will be streamed live on ESPN+. This article provides a comprehensive preview, expert pick, and odds analysis for this exciting matchup.
Noche UFC: Garcia vs. Gordon Preview
Rafa Garcia (17-4 MMA, 5-4 UFC) is looking to build on his recent unanimous decision victory over Vinc Pichel. Prior to that, he suffered a second-round finish loss to Grant Dawson. Meanwhile, Jared Gordon (21-7 MMA, 9-6 UFC) rebounded from a controversial split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast with a first-round stoppage of Thiago Moises.
Despite a strong case for a longer winning streak, including a highly disputed fight against Paddy Pimblett, Jared Gordon finds himself needing to defend his momentum against the tough and durable Rafa Garcia. The matchmakers are clearly testing Gordon’s mettle in this fight.
Expert Pick and Prediction
Although Rafa Garcia is a formidable opponent, Jared Gordon appears to have the edge in this contest. While Garcia's strengths lie in areas where Gordon also excels, the American fighter has demonstrated superior finishing ability across various aspects of the fight. While Gordon can be vulnerable to powerful strikers, Garcia is not perceived as fitting that profile.
The expert pick is Jared Gordon by TKO in Round 3, reflecting the belief that Gordon's superior skill set and finishing prowess will ultimately lead to victory.
Betting Odds and Analysis
According to FanDuel, Jared Gordon is the favorite at -240, while Rafa Garcia is the underdog at +190. Further analysis and betting recommendations follow, emphasizing Gordon's potential for a finish and the value in betting on both the moneyline and inside-the-distance outcomes.
Tale of the Tape: Garcia vs. Gordon
| Characteristic | Rafa Garcia | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-4 | 21-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:30 | 10:47 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/5/1994 | 9/6/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.01 | 5.67 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.47 | 3.91 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.21 | 1.83 |
| TD Acc | 43% | 32% |
| TD Def | 77% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0 |
Detailed Fight Breakdown
Jared "Flash" Gordon aims to solidify his position in the lightweight division against the experienced Rafa Garcia at UFC Noche. Despite being 36 years old, Gordon's skills have significantly improved, making him a formidable contender. His recent performances, including a swift victory over Thiago Moises, showcase his enhanced power and technique. Even his loss to Nasrat Haqparast has aged well, given Haqparast's subsequent success.
Rafa Garcia, with a 5-4 record in the UFC, represents a step down in competition for Gordon. Gordon's strong takedown defense, improved striking, and ability to dictate the pace make him a dangerous opponent. Even in the clinch, Gordon poses a threat with body work and short elbows.
Betting Strategy
The suggested betting strategy involves placing wagers on both the moneyline for Jared Gordon and a separate bet on Gordon to win inside the distance. This approach capitalizes on the perceived skill advantage and finishing potential of Gordon. Don't hesitate to back a fighter with a clear skill edge, regardless of the odds.