Trump's Tariffs: Weighing on the Global Oil and Gas Industry Outlook
The expansion of oil and gas became a central plank of Donald Trump's agenda during his potential second term. His administration implemented various tariffs impacting numerous countries and commodities with the aim of protecting US economic interests. However, a recent survey reveals industry uncertainty regarding the long-term impact of these tariffs on the global oil and gas industry.
The Impact of Trump's Tariff Policies
Throughout his campaign, Trump proposed global import tariffs ranging from 10% to 20%, and even higher tariffs of 60% or more on goods from China. While the implementation faced initial setbacks and policy reversals, each announcement triggered international responses, leading to heightened market volatility and hindering economic growth. Although crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products were largely excluded from these tariffs, fears surrounding inflation, slower growth, and escalating trade tensions have exerted downward pressure on oil prices.
GlobalData Survey: Industry Perspectives
To assess the impact of these tariffs, GlobalData conducted a survey from May to August 2025, gathering 204 responses. The findings highlighted the considerable uncertainty among industry professionals regarding the implications of tariffs on energy demand and supply. Key findings included:
- A little over a quarter of respondents believed the impact could last from six months to one year.
- A slightly smaller group anticipated the impact potentially lasting up to three years.
- Both groups acknowledged the significant challenges the industry faces in balancing profitability with long-term development plans.
Duration of Impact: Industry Sentiment
The survey results reveal a range of opinions on the duration of the tariffs' impact:
| Duration Estimate | Percentage of Respondents |
|---|---|
| Six Months to One Year | Over 25% |
| Up to Three Years | Marginally Smaller than above |
| Unable to Give Definite Opinion | Approximately 22% |
| Over Five Years | Approximately 14% |
| At Most Six Months | Around 13% |
Approximately 22% of participants were unable to provide a definite opinion, indicating the complexity and uniqueness of the situation. This level of uncertainty has significantly increased within the US oil and gas industry. Planning new developments is now particularly challenging due to the ambiguous outlook for end-use industries.
Long-Term Capital Plans at Risk
Approximately 14% of respondents suggested the impact could persist for over five years. Such a prolonged impact could disrupt the long-term capital plans of companies with five-year development goals. Conversely, around 13% of participants believed the impact would be short-term, lasting at most six months, especially if policies remain consistent. This group may feel that such a timeframe is sufficient to gauge market sentiment and adjust growth strategies. The unpredictable nature of the tariffs has created significant challenges for strategic planning within the oil and gas industry.
