Poll Shows Open Races in Texas Senate Primaries, with O'Rourke and Crockett Leading Hypothetical Democratic Field
A recent statewide poll indicates that both the Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senate in Texas are wide open. Many voters remain undecided or favor candidates who have not officially entered the race. The poll, released by Texas Public Opinion Research, suggests a fluid political landscape.
Republican Primary: Cornyn Leads Paxton, but Race Remains Tight
On the Republican side, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn leads Attorney General Ken Paxton, with 32% to 26%, respectively. However, a significant 29% of registered voters are still undecided. This marks a shift, as previous polls showed Cornyn trailing Paxton. Both candidates are seeking an endorsement from President Donald Trump, which could significantly influence the outcome.
"We have a fluid, single-digit race on the Republican side and both of these candidates will be duking it out for some time," said Slingshot Strategies pollster Evan Roth Smith.
Hypothetical Democratic Primary: O'Rourke and Crockett Emerge as Frontrunners
The survey's hypothetical Democratic primary is led by former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, neither of whom have officially announced their candidacy. O'Rourke garnered 27% of the hypothetical vote, while Crockett followed closely with 26%. This puts them well ahead of declared candidates like former Dallas congressman Colin Allred and state Rep. James Talarico.
Candidates' Considerations and Strategies
O'Rourke has stated he would consider running if it's "what the people of Texas want." Crockett is evaluating data to determine her competitiveness in a general election. She is currently focused on selecting a Dallas-area district to run in following redistricting. The poll reveals that Talarico has the lowest name recognition among the potential Democratic candidates.
- Beto O'Rourke: 27% (Hypothetical)
- Jasmine Crockett: 26% (Hypothetical)
- Colin Allred: 13%
- James Talarico: 7%
Undecided Voters and the Potential for Change
Eighteen percent of Democratic voters are undecided, meaning approximately three-quarters of those polled are either undecided or support someone not currently in the race. This creates an opportunity for candidates to gain momentum and capture the electorate. Evan Roth Smith notes that Texas Democratic voters are seeking a "fighter," suggesting that declared candidates must demonstrate their ability to wage a vigorous campaign.
"You have a Democratic primary that feels wide open with a lot of different possibilities," Smith said.
TribFest Speakers Announced
Speakers at the upcoming TribFest include Deb Haaland, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior; state Sen. Joan Huffman; and Jake Tapper, anchor of CNN’s “The Lead” and “State of the Union.” The event will be held from Nov. 13–15 in downtown Austin.
