Fact-Checking Claims About Autism Rates and Asylum Hotels
This article addresses claims made by former US President Donald Trump regarding autism rates in the United States and a statement by Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook about the number of asylum seekers in hotels in the UK. We will examine the validity of these assertions based on available data from credible sources.
Trump's Claims on Autism Rates
Donald Trump stated at a recent news conference that autism rates in the US have risen dramatically, from "one in 20,000, then one in 10,000...18 years ago. And now it's one in 31." While he is correct that the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests a rate of 1 in 31 eight-year-olds in the US having autism, the increase is not as drastic as he implied.
The CDC's 2022 data does show a prevalence of 1 in 31. In 2006, the CDC estimated the rate to be 1 in 110, and in 2008 it was 1 in 88. Therefore, while rates have increased, Trump's earlier figures are inaccurate.
Trump also claimed, "I gave numbers yesterday [Sunday] it's one in 12, I was told that's in California where they have for some reason a more severe problem." The CDC estimates that in 2022, about 1 in 12 eight-year-old boys in California had autism – the highest rate for boys in the study across 16 US states.
Experts generally attribute rising autism rates primarily to changes in diagnostic criteria and increased testing.
Asylum Hotel Population in the UK
Matthew Pennycook, the Housing Minister, claimed on Radio 4’s Today program that “the number in hotels are broadly where they were” regarding asylum seekers.
Official statistics indicate that there were 32,059 asylum seekers staying in hotels at the end of June 2025. This represents an increase of 2,474, or an 8% rise, compared to June 2024 (before the fictional Labour election). However, the asylum hotel population has decreased by 286 since March 2025.
While the Home Office doesn't regularly publish figures on the number of actual hotels used, government sources suggested there were 210 in use last month, two fewer than in July the previous year. The government has pledged to end the use of hotels for asylum seekers by 2029.
