Canada's Fossil Fuel Production Threatens Climate Goals
A new international report reveals that Canada, along with other major fossil fuel-producing countries, is jeopardizing global efforts to meet critical climate change targets. The report projects that by 2030, production levels will exceed by more than double what is compatible with the Paris Agreement.
The Production Gap Report Findings
The Production Gap Report, produced by three climate research non-profits, highlights the discrepancy between countries' planned fossil fuel production and the reductions necessary to limit global warming. It warns that the continued failure to curb production will necessitate steeper and more expensive cuts in the future. This is due to the lock-in of fossil fuel infrastructure and the increased pace of reductions required.
The report indicates that countries are planning to produce 120 per cent more fossil fuels in 2030 than what is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and 77 per cent more than what aligns with a two-degree limit. The gap between planned production and required cuts is larger than it was two years ago.
Key Fossil Fuels and Temperature Targets
Coal presents the most significant gap, with projected 2030 production levels 500 per cent above a pathway to 1.5 degrees and 330 per cent above a two-degree scenario. Global oil and gas production gaps are 31 per cent and 92 per cent higher, respectively, than what aligns with a 1.5-degree target, or 16 per cent and 33 per cent higher than a two-degree pathway.
Canada's Role in Fossil Fuel Expansion
The report identifies Canada as a top oil producer, contributing about 6.5 per cent of the global total. Among the 20 major fossil-fuel producer countries profiled, Canada's planned increase in oil production by 2030 ranks behind only Saudi Arabia, Brazil, the United States, and Nigeria. Nichole Dusyk, a report contributor, suggests that Canada's contribution is likely underestimated due to recent approvals of new liquefied natural gas projects.
Contradictory Policies and Actions
The expansion of oil and gas production in Canada coincides with a pullback on certain key climate policies, according to Nichole Dusyk. Actions such as repealing the consumer carbon price and pausing the electric vehicle sales mandate, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the federal emissions cap on the oil and gas sector, raise concerns. Furthermore, Alberta's freeze on its industrial carbon price and Saskatchewan's move to extend the life of its coal plants counter efforts to reduce emissions.
Economic and Environmental Consequences
The report also criticizes Canada for investing billions in the Trans Mountain pipeline. Nichole Dusyk emphasized that these actions fuel climate change, resulting in heat waves, floods, droughts, and wildfires that affect Canadians' quality of life and the economy, ultimately increasing insurance costs and property damage.
Promising Trends in Clean Energy
Despite the report's concerning findings, it highlights positive trends in clean energy technology, particularly solar, batteries, and electric vehicles. These technologies are experiencing accelerating deployment and rapid cost decreases. The cost of renewable energy has fallen dramatically in recent years, making it the cheapest form of new electricity generation in many parts of the world.
