Michel Barnier Leads in Paris By-Election, Setting Stage for Run-off
Former French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has emerged as the frontrunner in the first round of a by-election held in Paris on September 21, 2025. Representing the centre-right Les Républicains (LR), Barnier is now poised to potentially reclaim a traditionally conservative stronghold in the capital.
First Round Results and Abstention
Michel Barnier secured over 45 percent of the vote in the capital’s second constituency. He will now face Frédérique Bredin, the Socialist candidate, in the upcoming run-off election. However, the first round was marked by exceptionally low turnout, with nearly 75 percent of voters abstaining.
Barnier acknowledged that the high abstention rate reflects “worry, frustration and fatigue” with the current political climate in France. The results position the 74-year-old, who briefly served as Prime Minister last year, to potentially become Les Républicains' sole MP in Paris.
The Candidates and Their Campaigns
Frédérique Bredin secured approximately 32 percent of the vote as the sole left-wing candidate in a field of 17. The far-right National Rally's Thierry Mariani finished significantly behind.
Barnier framed the upcoming run-off as a choice between his “united candidacy of the right and centre” and “the left’s candidate, backed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and France Unbowed.” Bredin countered that Barnier's performance was “a historic failure for the right, with less than 50 percent in this constituency,” which includes Paris’s 5th, 6th, and 7th districts.
The Context of the By-Election
The by-election was triggered after the victory of Jean Laussucq, a deputy from President Emmanuel Macron’s party, was annulled due to campaign account irregularities. Bredin criticized the tight campaign schedule, calling it “scandalously short.”
Barnier’s candidacy faced initial challenges from Rachida Dati, the outgoing culture minister, who ultimately withdrew after securing the LR nomination for next year’s municipal elections. Despite being known internationally for his role in Brexit negotiations, Barnier has been emphasizing his Paris credentials, claiming residency in the constituency for the past 12 years. The fact that he had to vote by proxy due to not being on the electoral roll raised eyebrows.
Looking Ahead to the Run-off
The upcoming run-off between Michel Barnier and Frédérique Bredin represents a significant symbolic showdown. Barnier is attempting to re-establish Les Républicains' presence in the capital, while Bredin hopes to achieve an upset victory for the left in a traditionally conservative area of Paris.
