Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
The Seattle Mariners, fresh off a perfect seven-game homestand, find themselves in first place in the AL West for the first time since early June. As they embark on a crucial road trip, their first stop is a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals, who are fighting to stay in the AL Wild Card race.
The Stakes for Seattle
Winning the AL West is the Mariners' clear priority. Securing the division title would grant them home-field advantage in the Wild Card round. With a 23-6 record at T-Mobile Park since the All-Star break, home-field advantage is a significant asset. The series concludes with a showdown in Houston that may determine the division.
Series at a Glance
|
Mariners |
Royals |
| Game 1 (Tuesday, September 16, 4:40 pm) |
RHP Logan Gilbert (57% Win Probability) |
RHP Michael Wacha (43% Win Probability) |
| Game 2 (Wednesday, September 17, 4:40 pm) |
RHP Bryce Miller (46% Win Probability) |
LHP Cole Ragans (54% Win Probability) |
| Game 3 (Thursday, September 18, 11:10 am) |
RHP Luis Castillo (56% Win Probability) |
RHP Michael Lorenzen (44% Win Probability) |
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
| Overview |
Royals |
Mariners |
Edge |
| Batting (wRC+) |
90 (13th in AL) |
110 (3rd in AL) |
Mariners |
| Fielding (OAA) |
29 (3rd) |
-27 (14th) |
Royals |
| Starting Pitching (FIP-) |
96 (4th) |
101 (8th) |
Royals |
| Bullpen (FIP-) |
94 (7th) |
97 (9th) |
Royals |
Royals' Last Stand
The Royals, once contenders in the Wild Card standings, have struggled recently. Despite acquiring role players like Mike Yastrzemski and Adam Frazier, the team's success hinges on the performance of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia. They will activate Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha off the IL in an attempt to reignite their season.
Royals Lineup Analysis
| Player |
Position |
Bats |
PA |
K% |
BB% |
ISO |
wRC+ |
| Mike Yastrzemski |
RF |
L |
511 |
20.2% |
12.5% |
0.164 |
103 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
SS |
R |
631 |
19.0% |
7.6% |
0.209 |
128 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino |
1B |
L |
627 |
15.8% |
7.2% |
0.209 |
115 |
| Maikel Garcia |
3B |
R |
614 |
12.4% |
9.1% |
0.171 |
125 |
| Salvador Perez |
C |
R |
589 |
19.5% |
3.9% |
0.213 |
94 |
| Adam Frazier |
LF |
L |
420 |
17.6% |
5.7% |
0.097 |
85 |
| Jonathan India |
2B |
R |
552 |
18.3% |
9.6% |
0.110 |
88 |
| Jac Caglianone |
DH |
L |
197 |
21.8% |
7.6% |
0.128 |
39 |
| Kyle Isbel |
CF |
L |
404 |
18.3% |
5.7% |
0.099 |
78 |
Game 1 Pitching Matchup: Wacha vs. Gilbert
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - MAY 10: Cole Ragans #55 of the Kansas City Royals pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium on May 10, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Kyle Rivas/Getty Images)
Michael Wacha, after bouncing around, found success with the Royals. He'll return from the IL after concussion-like symptoms stemming from an off-field incident. Logan Gilbert will take the mound for the Mariners.
| Pitcher |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
| Michael Wacha |
159 |
17.9% |
6.3% |
6.3% |
36.7% |
3.45 |
3.57 |
| Logan Gilbert |
114.1 |
34.0% |
6.0% |
15.5% |
40.2% |
3.54 |
3.19 |
| RHP Michael Wacha |
Pitch Frequency |
Velocity |
Stuff+ |
Whiff+ |
BIP+ |
xwOBA |
| Four-seam |
29.2% |
93.1 |
86 |
74 |
82 |
0.360 |
| Sinker |
10.2% |
93.4 |
90 |
76 |
73 |
0.344 |
| Cutter |
15.2% |
88.2 |
80 |
76 |
100 |
0.395 |
| Changeup |
25.3% |
79.9 |
132 |
92 |
148 |
0.249 |
| Curveball |
7.8% |
75.1 |
93 |
101 |
138 |
0.271 |
| Slider |
12.1% |
84.8 |
88 |
85 |
130 |
0.303 |
Game 2 Pitching Matchup: Ragans vs. Miller
Cole Ragans aims to bounce back from early-season struggles. Bryce Miller is looking to improve after returning from an elbow injury.
| Pitcher |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
| Cole Ragans |
48.2 |
36.4% |
7.7% |
10.9% |
36.8% |
5.18 |
2.47 |
| Bryce Miller |
75.2 |
19.6% |
8.9% |
14.9% |
36.0% |
5.59 |
5.13 |
| LHP Cole Ragans |
Pitch Frequency |
Velocity |
Stuff+ |
Whiff+ |
BIP+ |
xwOBA |
| Four-seam |
48.6% |
95.3 |
109 |
110 |
116 |
0.307 |
| Cutter |
4.1% |
90.0 |
|
|
|
|
| Changeup |
19.7% |
84.4 |
102 |
159 |
110 |
0.193 |
| Curveball |
13.7% |
80.2 |
107 |
112 |
92 |
0.276 |
| Slider |
13.9% |
84.7 |
118 |
129 |
69 |
0.217 |
Game 3 Pitching Matchup: Lorenzen vs. Castillo
Michael Lorenzen and Luis Castillo face off in the final game of the series. Lorenzen relies on a seven-pitch mix, while Castillo aims to improve his road ERA.
| Pitcher |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
| Michael Lorenzen |
127.1 |
20.5% |
6.5% |
13.8% |
39.1% |
4.95 |
4.61 |
| Luis Castillo |
167.1 |
21.3% |
6.6% |
11.2% |
42.5% |
3.76 |
4.03 |
| RHP Michael Lorenzen |
Pitch Frequency |
Velocity |
Stuff+ |
Whiff+ |
BIP+ |
xwOBA |
| Four-seam |
21.8% |
94.1 |
86 |
73 |
94 |
0.380 |
| Sinker |
18.1% |
93.1 |
95 |
83 |
101 |
0.371 |
| Cutter |
10.4% |
90.4 |
81 |
88 |
100 |
0.410 |
| Changeup |
17.1% |
83.9 |
95 |
136 |
120 |
0.253 |
| Curveball |
12.0% |
82.2 |
92 |
91 |
96 |
0.419 |
| Slider |
12.2% |
85.2 |
100 |
77 |
104 |
0.318 |
| Sweeper |
8.4% |
82.4 |
100 |
52 |
93 |
0.301 |
AL West Standings
| Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Recent Form |
| Mariners |
82-68 |
0.547 |
— |
W-W-W-W-W |
| Astros |
82-69 |
0.543 |
0.5 |
L-W-W-L-W |
| Rangers |
79-72 |
0.523 |
3.5 |
W-W-W-L-L |
| Athletics |
70-80 |
0.467 |
12.0 |
L-W-W-W-W |
| Angels |
69-81 |
0.460 |
13.0 |
W-L-L-L-L |
AL Wild Card Standings
| Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Recent Form |
| Yankees |
83-67 |
0.553 |
+1.5 |
W-W-W-L-L |
| Red Sox |
82-68 |
0.547 |
+0.5 |
W-L-L-L-W |
| Astros |
82-69 |
0.543 |
— |
L-W-W-L-W |
| Rangers |
79-72 |
0.523 |
3.0 |
W-W-W-L-L |
| Guardians |
78-71 |
0.523 |
3.0 |
L-W-W-W-W |
| Royals |
75-75 |
0.500 |
6.5 |
W-L-L-L-W |
The Big Picture
While the Mariners face the Royals, the Astros and Rangers clash in Houston. The Astros won the first game but Yordan Alvarez's injury casts a shadow. Meanwhile, the Royals are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive, but this series has lost some of its meaning as the Mariners took a division lead and the Royals dropped in the rankings after losing six of eight games.
