Soybean Prices Fluctuate Amid Trade Talk Hopes and Production Estimates
Soybean futures experienced a volatile trading session on Thursday, initially showing weakness before recovering on news of potential trade discussions between the U.S. and China. Contracts were down slightly in early trading but saw a late-session recovery. The market is also reacting to new EIA data and production estimates.
Market Overview
Soybean contracts traded lower early Thursday, down 1 to 2 cents, before late session buying pushed contracts 10 to 12 cents higher on Wednesday. Preliminary open interest rose by 8,252 contracts. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was up 10 cents at $9.35. Soymeal futures saw mixed performance, with nearby October contracts down $1, while others were steady to 80 cents higher. Soy Oil futures saw gains of 73 to 93 points.
Trade Talk Impact
Futures shrugged off early session pressure following a post from President Trump indicating that soybeans would be a key discussion topic in an upcoming meeting with President Xi of China later this month. This news fueled buying interest, impacting soybean prices.
Biodiesel Demand and Export Sales
EIA data revealed that soybean oil used in biodiesel and renewable biodiesel reached 1.108 billion pounds in July, the highest level in 8 months, although slightly below the previous year. The release of Export Sales data, typically published Thursday morning, has been delayed. Analysts anticipated reports of 0.3 and 1.6 MMT of soybeans sold for the week ending on 9/25.
Production Estimates
StoneX has updated its US soybean crop estimate to 53.9 bpa, a 0.7 bpa increase from last month’s estimate. Production is now estimated at 4.326 bbu.
Closing Prices
| Contract | Previous Close | Current Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 Soybeans | $10.13 (up 11 1/4 cents) | Down 2 cents |
| Nearby Cash | $9.35 1/1 (up 10 cents) | - |
| Jan 26 Soybeans | $10.31 (up 10 3/4 cents) | Down 1 1/2 cents |
| Mar 26 Soybeans | $10.46 1/4 (up 10 1/2 cents) | Down 1 1/4 cents |
