Long A&E Waits Linked to Over 800 Deaths in Scotland
A recent report by the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) estimates that over 800 deaths in Scotland last year are linked to long waiting times in Accident and Emergency (A&E) departments. The report highlights a significant increase in patients waiting more than 12 hours, leading to what is being described as a "national tragedy."
Key Findings of the RCEM Report
The RCEM analysis revealed that 76,510 people in Scotland waited longer than 12 hours in A&E departments last year, a 26% increase compared to the previous year. Of these, 58,906 were waiting to be admitted to a ward. This surge in waiting times has been directly linked to an estimated 818 "excess deaths."
- 76,510 people waited over 12 hours in A&E.
- 58,906 waited for admission to a ward.
- Estimated 818 excess deaths due to long waits.
The Human Cost and Political Reactions
Dr Fiona Hunter, the college vice-president, described the situation as a “national tragedy,” emphasizing that patients are often forced to wait hours on trolleys in unsuitable spaces due to a lack of available beds. Opposition parties in Holyrood have criticized SNP ministers, accusing them of failure to address the crisis in emergency care. Dr Sandesh Gulhane, the Scottish Tories’ shadow health secretary, called the deaths "completely avoidable."
“The fact that the deaths of more than 800 patients have been lost due to a system in crisis is a national tragedy.” - Dr Fiona Hunter, RCEM
Government Response and Current Performance
John Swinney, the First Minister, unveiled an NHS recovery blueprint in January and acknowledged the existing crises within the health service. The SNP government has set a target of 95% of A&E attendees being seen, transferred, or discharged within four hours. However, recent figures indicate that only 63.1% of patients are being seen within the target timeframe, marking the lowest level since February.
Excess Deaths Calculation Methodology
The RCEM analysis applied a "standard mortality ratio" to calculate the number of excess deaths. This ratio estimates one additional death for every 72 patients who wait between eight and 12 hours. This methodology resulted in the estimate of 818 excess deaths related to waits of 12 hours or longer.
| Metric | Figure | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Patients Waiting > 12 Hours | 76,510 | Total number of patients waiting over 12 hours in A&E |
| Excess Deaths Estimate | 818 | Estimated number of deaths linked to A&E wait times |
