Predicting the Detroit Tigers' 2025 AL Central Division Clinch and Playoff Outlook
The Detroit Tigers are on the cusp of their first AL Central Division title since 2014. This article analyzes their chances of clinching the division, the potential playoff bracket, and key series that will determine their fate. The focus is on the remaining schedule, the Cleveland Guardians challenge, and the probabilities calculated by major baseball projection sites.
A Decade-Long Drought
It has been a long wait for Detroit Tigers fans. The last division title came on September 28, 2014. Since then, the team has undergone a rebuild, finally reaching a wild-card berth last season. Only two players from that 2014 clincher were still active this season, highlighting the turnover and time that has passed. The team is hoping to break their drought this year.
The Road to the Crown: Guardians Series and Beyond
The Tigers currently hold a 6½-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians with 12 games remaining for Detroit and 13 for Cleveland. A crucial three-game series against the Guardians at Comerica Park could seal the deal. A sweep would significantly increase their chances, potentially leading to a clinch as early as Thursday, September 18, with Tarik Skubal expected to start. After the Guardians, the Tigers face the Atlanta Braves.
Key Series and Potential Playoff Matchups
Several key series involving other American League contenders will impact the playoff picture. These include games for the Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners, Astros and Rangers. The outcomes of these games, combined with the Tigers' performance, will determine their seeding and potential opponents in the playoffs. The projected outcomes suggest the Tigers will secure a first-round bye.
Projection Sites: Odds and Predictions
Major projection sites overwhelmingly favor the Tigers to win the AL Central. Baseball Reference projects a 2-seed and 91 wins. Baseball Prospectus also projects a 2-seed, and rates the Tigers' chances of making the ALDS at 88.6%. FanGraphs sees the Tigers at No. 2, potentially facing the winner of a Astros/Mariners wild-card series.
Guardians, Detroit Tigers Series Preview
The upcoming series between the Guardians and Tigers features the following pitching matchups: Joey Cantillo vs. Casey Mize on Tuesday, TBD vs. Jack Flaherty on Wednesday, and TBD vs. Tarik Skubal on Thursday. Skubal is expected to pitch despite recent soreness. The Tigers lead the season series 4-3, with a close overall record of 1,163-1,158.
Injury Updates
Both teams have significant injuries. Notable Guardians on the injured list include Nic Enright, Lane Thomas, and Andrew Walters. The Tigers injury list includes Sawyer Gipson-Long, Beau Briske, and Matt Vierling. Skubal and Javier Baez are listed as day-to-day.
Projected Final AL Standings
| Rank | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blue Jays | 94-68 |
| 2 | Tigers | 91-71 |
| 3 | Mariners | 90-72 |
| 4 | Yankees | 92-70 |
| 5 | Red Sox | 88-74 |
| 6 | Astros | 87-75 |
| 7 | Rangers | 85-77 |
| 8 | Guardians | 84-78 |
AL Playoff Bracket Prediction
The Blue Jays and Tigers are projected to secure first-round byes. Toronto would face the winner of the Yankees/Red Sox wild-card series, while the Tigers would host the winner of the Mariners/Astros series. This sets the stage for an exciting postseason run for the Detroit Tigers.
