Soybean Prices Decline Amid Crop Progress and Export Data
Soybean futures experienced losses on Tuesday morning, continuing a downward trend from the previous session. Most contracts are trading down 4 to 5 cents. On Monday, contracts closed down 13 to 14 ½ cents. Market activity reflects concern over crop conditions and recent export figures. This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the factors impacting soybean prices.
Market Performance and Open Interest
Preliminary open interest on Monday increased by 5,300 contracts, suggesting active trading despite the price decline. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price fell 14 1/2 cents to $9.35 3/4. Soymeal futures decreased by 70 cents to $4 across the board, while Soy Oil futures declined between 45 and 93 cents at the close on Monday.
Crop Progress and Condition
Crop Progress data indicates that 61% of the U.S. soybean crop is experiencing leaf drop, 1 percentage point ahead of the normal pace. Harvest progress is on par with the average, at 9% complete. However, condition ratings continue to deteriorate, falling 2% to 61% good/excellent. The Brugler500 index, encompassing all five USDA categories, dropped 4 points to 358, now 4 points below the same week last year, indicating a continued decline in overall crop health. This is putting pressure on soybean futures.
Export Inspections and Destinations
Export Inspections data revealed that 484,116 MT (17.79 mbu) of soybeans were shipped in the week ending September 18. This marks a significant decrease of 41.1% from the previous week and a 2.9% decrease from the same week last year. Egypt was the leading destination with 141,244 MT, followed by Indonesia (71,942 MT) and the United Kingdom (67,129 MT). Marketing year shipments have totaled 1.57 MMT (57.68 mbu) in the initial 2.5 weeks, reflecting a 25.9% increase year-over-year. The strong year-over-year shipments are supported by a purchase of 180,000 MT of soybeans by Pakistan.
Global Market Influences
Argentina recently suspended its export tax on soybeans, soybean meal, and oil through the end of October, a move that could further impact global soybean prices. The combination of crop conditions, export data, and global policy changes continues to shape the soybean market landscape. Further monitoring is important to understand potential price shifts. This action from Argentina can create downward pressure on global prices and cause volatility.
| Contract | Closing Price (Monday) | Current Change (Tuesday Morning) |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 Soybeans | $10.11 (down 14 1/2 cents) | Down 4 ½ cents |
| Nearby Cash | $9.35 3/4 (down 14 1/2 cents) | Down 14 1/2 cents |
| Jan 26 Soybeans | $10.30 1/2 (down 14 1/4 cents) | Down 4 ½ cents |
| Mar 26 Soybeans | $10.47 (down 13 3/4 cents) | Down 4 ½ cents |
