Atlantic Braces for Potential Tropical Development as Hurricane Season Lulls
The Atlantic hurricane season, while relatively quiet so far in 2025, is showing signs of potential activity. The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring a tropical wave emerging off the coast of West Africa, with increasing odds of development next week. Meanwhile, forecasters are also watching for potential "homegrown" storm development closer to the US coastline.
Tropical Wave off Africa: Development Possible
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms currently moving off the west coast of Africa is drawing attention. While stable air and Saharan dust have been limiting factors, the NHC estimates a 50% chance of the system becoming a tropical depression by the middle to end of next week.
Meteorologist Haley Meier of FOX Weather explained that Saharan dust reduces moisture content, hindering storm development. Despite these challenges, computer models suggest the system could develop a circulation, with some even projecting it to become a hurricane. The system is expected to move north, potentially nearing the northeastern Caribbean islands late next week. Residents of Puerto Rico and the northeastern Caribbean are advised to monitor forecasts.
Quiet Hurricane Season So Far
Despite warm ocean temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively calm. Factors such as sinking air, wind shear, dry air, and a less active ITCZ have suppressed storm formation. Only Hurricane Erin reached Category 5 status, taking advantage of a brief period of low shear and less dry air. The last named storm, Tropical Storm Fernand, fizzled out at the end of August. As of now, the season is pacing below average, with six named storms compared to the typical eight by this time.
An "Atlantic Niña", a pool of cooler waters off the African coast, may also be contributing to the lull, similar to last year's pattern. However, forecasters caution that with over half the season remaining, activity could still increase.
Increased Risk of "Homegrown" Storms
The return of the Central American Gyre, a broad area of low pressure over Central America, is also being monitored. This gyre can produce heavy rainfall and aid in the formation of tropical cyclones, potentially leading to storm development in mid to late September.
Pacific Storm Development and AccuWeather's Revised Forecast
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, a tropical depression has formed off the southern coast of Mexico. Named Tropical Depression 13-E, is forecast to move west-northwestward. The system is expected to become a tropical storm and potentially a major hurricane named Mario. The AccuWeather has revised their prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The new forecast predicts 13-16 named storms (down from 13-18), 6-9 hurricanes (down from 7-10), and 3-5 major hurricanes (unchanged). Direct U.S. impacts remain the same at 3-6.
| AccuWeather Hurricane Season Forecast | Original Forecast | Revised Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms | 13-18 | 13-16 |
| Hurricanes | 7-10 | 6-9 |
| Major Hurricanes | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Direct U.S. Impacts | 3-6 | 3-6 |
Potential Storm Gabrielle on the Horizon?
If the Atlantic tropical wave develops into a named storm, it would likely be called Gabrielle. While not an immediate threat to land, meteorologists emphasize the need to monitor the system, as the latter half of September can see storms strengthen rapidly. Meteorologist Matt Lanza noted that models are showing increasing agreement on the disturbance's development in the central Atlantic. WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry also advised continued vigilance despite the lack of immediate threat.
