Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Game Preview and Predictions (September 12, 2025)
The Chicago Cubs are set to face the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, September 12, 2025, at 1:20 PM CT. This game holds significant importance for the Cubs as they fight for a postseason berth and the top wild-card spot. Let's delve into the key details and predictions for this matchup.
Friday's Matinee Magic at Wrigley Field
The Cubs have a notable history in Friday afternoon games at Wrigley Field. Since August 8, 1988, they boast a .554 winning percentage in Friday matinees, significantly higher than their overall winning percentage. Their historical success on Friday afternoons could give them an edge.
According to BCB’s JohnW53, the Cubs have historically performed better on Friday afternoons. In 24 out of 38 seasons, their winning percentage on Friday afternoons was higher than in all other games by an average of 90 points. This year, it's higher by 46 points (.667 to .621).
Postseason Implications and Magic Numbers
The Cubs' magic number to clinch a postseason spot is 8, and to secure the top wild-card spot over the San Diego Padres, it's 13. The tiebreaker situation favors the Padres if they tie, so securing wins are critical.
The Cubs and Padres split their season series, making divisional record the primary tiebreaker. The Padres are 27-19 against NL West teams, while the Cubs are 24-18 against NL Central teams. The Cubs have 10 divisional games remaining, compared to the Padres' six. The Cubs control their own destiny in the NL Central race.
Player Spotlight: Carson Kelly
Carson Kelly has been a standout performer for the Cubs in September, hitting .250 with four home runs and seven RBI in six games. His recent offensive surge could be a key factor in the Cubs' success against the Rays.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Matthew Boyd vs. Shane Baz
The game features a pitching matchup between the Cubs' Matthew Boyd and the Rays' Shane Baz. Boyd has shown better performance at Wrigley Field and in day games, while Baz, a former first-round pick, is looking to solidify his role in the Rays' rotation. The difference in experience between the two pitchers will be a key factor.
Matthew Boyd has a 2.16 ERA in 13 starts at Wrigley Field compared to a 3.62 ERA in 15 road starts. Boyd hasn’t faced the Rays since 2019. Shane Baz missed considerable time with injuries and this is his first full year as a rotation starter. His last three starts have been decent enough (2.65 ERA, 21 strikeouts in 17 innings).
Broadcast Information and Game Day Coverage
Today's game will be broadcast on Marquee Sports Network and MLB Network (outside Cubs and Rays market territories). Fans can also follow the game live on MLB.com. For additional insights, fans can check out DRays Bay, the SB Nation Rays site.
Betting Predictions and Analysis
SportsLine models suggest that the Over 7.5 total runs is a strong bet for this game. With the Cubs boasting a potent offense (No. 8 in MLB), and the Rays having recently played high-scoring games, an offensive showcase is anticipated. Carson Kelly's recent power surge further supports this prediction. Another game to watch is the Pirates vs. Nationals.
The SportsLine model projects the Over to hit in 55.2% of simulations. The Cubs have the No. 8 scoring offense in baseball (4.88 runs per game). Cubs catcher Carson Kelly has three home runs over his last three games. Shane Baz has a 4.94 ERA this season. Matthew Boyd has been effective throughout the entirety of the season with a 2.92 ERA, but the 34-year-old has a 5.70 ERA over his last four starts.
Stitches' Pick: Tampa Bay Rays
According to Stitches from the New York Post, the best bet is on Shane Baz and the Tampa Bay Rays. With Matthew Boyd struggling recently, the Rays may have the edge in this matchup.
