Jesus Aguilar vs. Luis Gurule Prediction, Odds, and Pick for Noche UFC
The Noche UFC Prelims feature a Flyweight (125) Division bout between Jesus Aguilar and Luis Gurule. This article provides a betting prediction and pick, along with UFC odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Fighter Backgrounds
Jesus Aguilar (11-3) holds a 3-2 record inside the UFC since 2023. He recently lost to Rafael Estevam after a three-fight winning streak. Aguilar stands 5-foot-4 with a 62.5-inch reach and enters as the betting underdog.
Luis Gurule (10-1) is looking for his first UFC win after a debut loss to Ode Osbourne. The Contender Series alumni stands 5-foot-5 with a 64-inch reach.
Noche UFC Odds (DraftKings)
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | +190 |
| Luis Gurule | -230 |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -166 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +130 |
Why Jesus Aguilar Will Win
Aguilar's 3-2 UFC record includes fights against tough opponents like Tatsuro Taira. He is known for his scrappy fighting style and resistance, often performing well as an underdog. Two of his three UFC wins have come in the underdog spot.
Aguilar holds an experience advantage over Gurule. His ability to remain dangerous in compromised positions and his sneaky striking power make him a threat throughout the fight. He has a 45% striking accuracy. Aguilar has 1 KO/TKO, and 7 submissions.
Aguilar will likely aim to trap Gurule along the fence and wear him down over three rounds, using his elbows effectively on clinch breaks.
Why Luis Gurule Will Win
Luis Gurule is coming off a loss to Ode Osbourne. He's an aggressive knockout artist who takes the center of the octagon and stalks his opponents. Four of his last five wins have come by decision, indicating his ability to sustain activity over three rounds. He has 5 KO/TKOs, and 1 submission.
Gurule possesses a solid chin, allowing him to close the distance confidently. His movement around the cage will be crucial to cutting off Aguilar's lateral transitions. Gurule lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute at a 48% clip. He's confident in his striking and may aim for a quick finish on the feet.
Final Jesus Aguilar-Luis Gurule Prediction & Pick
Both fighters are coming off losses and will be determined to impose their styles. Jesus Aguilar is a live underdog who thrives in these situations. If he can avoid Gurule's power shots and use his movement, he can potentially land strikes and secure a decision. Aguilar is consistently undervalued in the betting lines. For these reasons, we believe Jesus Aguilar is the winning pick.
Final Jesus Aguilar-Luis Gurule Prediction & Pick: Jesus Aguilar (+190)
MMA Underdog Pick of the Week: Noche UFC 3
For our MMA Underdog Pick of the Week: Noche UFC 3, we're backing a flyweight underdog on the prelims. This event occurs in San Antonio, Texas.
Our pick is Jesus Aguilar, who earned his UFC contract on Week 5 of Dana White's Contender Series in 2022. Since joining the UFC, Aguilar has a 3-2 record. While Luis Gurule may hit extremely hard for a 125-pounder, Aguilar also strikes effectively and possesses some power. Most importantly, Aguilar is a much better grappler than Gurule, who has poor takedown defense.
Noche UFC 3 Underdog Pick: Jesus Aguilar ML (+187)