National Hurricane Center Tracks Two Disturbances: Will Tropical Storm Jerry Form?
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, is currently monitoring two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic. As of October 4, 2025, neither system poses an immediate threat to the U.S., but forecasters are closely watching their development. One system could bring heavy rainfall and potential flooding to Florida and the Bahamas, while the other has a medium chance of developing into Tropical Storm Jerry.
Tropical Weather Outlook: October 4, 2025
According to the NHC's tropical outlook, updated Saturday, October 4, 2025, experts are monitoring an area of low pressure and a tropical wave. Here's a breakdown of each system:
- North-Central Gulf: A weak area of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward, reaching the coast of Texas by Monday. However, due to strong upper-level winds, development is not expected. The formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days is near 0 percent.
- Tropical Atlantic: Recent satellite data indicates a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave has formed several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and it could become a tropical depression by the middle to latter part of next week while moving across the central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward Islands. The formation chance through 48 hours is low, near 10 percent, but the formation chance through 7 days is medium, at 60 percent.
The Next Storm: Jerry
Should the tropical wave in the Atlantic develop into a tropical storm, it will be named Jerry, which is next on the list of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season names. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 every year, with the most activity typically occurring between August and October.
Potential Impacts on Florida
Although the area of low pressure near the Bahamas has a low chance of development, it is expected to bring heavy rainfall and possible flooding across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend. Residents are advised to stay informed about the latest weather forecasts and warnings.
Staying Informed and Prepared
The USA TODAY Network in Florida will continue to provide daily tropics watch advisories throughout the hurricane season. Residents are encouraged to download their local site's app for the latest news and updates. Consider signing up for weather alerts via text to receive timely notifications about current storms and weather events by location.
It's important to be prepared for hurricane season. Here are some essential items to include in your emergency supply kit:
- Water
- Non-perishable food
- Two-week supply of medications
- Batteries
- Flashlight
- Cash
- A go-bag with essential supplies
- Portable cellphone chargers
- Battery-operated radio
- List of emergency phone numbers
- Copy of your insurance policy
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names
Here are the names designated for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
- Andrea
- Barry
- Chantal
- Dexter
- Erin
- Fernand
- Gabrielle
- Humberto
- Imelda
- Jerry
- Karen
- Lorenzo
- Melissa
- Nestor
- Olga
- Pablo
- Rebekah
- Sebastien
- Tanya
- Van
- Wendy
