Thousands of Workers Face Uncertainty as US-Africa Trade Deal Nears Expiration
Thousands of workers across Africa are facing an uncertain future as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a key trade agreement with the United States, is set to expire. This landmark deal, which has provided duty-free access to the US market for some African goods for 25 years, has been a cornerstone of US-Africa economic relations and its potential end is causing significant anxiety.
The Impact on Workers and Industries
At Shona EPZ, a garment factory in Nairobi, Kenya, the looming expiration of AGOA is palpable. The factory, like many others across the continent, relies heavily on the trade agreement to export goods to the US market. For workers like Joan Wambui, a 29-year-old who supports her family with her factory salary, the end of AGOA could mean job loss and financial hardship.
Kenya's apparel industry has thrived under AGOA, exporting $470 million worth of clothing to the US in 2024 alone, supporting over 66,000 direct jobs. The potential loss of these jobs and the closure of factories like Shona EPZ would have devastating consequences, especially for young people who have struggled to find stable employment. Isaac Maluki, factory director at Shona EPZ, fears that without an extension, the factory may have to shut down, wasting a $10 million investment.
The Stakes Across Africa
The uncertainty surrounding AGOA extends far beyond Kenya. Over 30 African countries currently export over 6,000 products to the US under the agreement. The program has been credited with creating jobs, boosting industries, and strengthening African economies in global trade. The expiration of AGOA could significantly impact a range of sectors, from textiles to agriculture.
Negotiations and Future Paths
Envoys from various African countries have been lobbying Washington for an extension of AGOA. While a White House official indicated support for a one-year extension, no official announcement has been made. Kenya's Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui has emphasized the need for an extension to allow for the implementation of transition mechanisms.
Trade policy expert Teniola Tayo suggests that African countries need to rethink their approach to trade negotiations with the US, offering something in exchange for market access. Kenya is also pursuing a bilateral trade deal with the US and exploring new markets to reduce overreliance on the US. President William Ruto expects to sign a trade deal with the U.S. by the end of the year and has urged Washington to extend AGOA for at least five more years.
The Optimists, Pessimists, and Pragmatists
Experts are divided on the future of trade relations between the United States and Africa after AGOA expires. Some are optimistic that the agreement will be renewed, pointing to its mutual benefits and the lobbying efforts of powerful business groups. Others are pessimistic, citing the "America First" doctrine and the US's preference for bilateral deals. A third group, the pragmatists, anticipates a short-term extension to allow for further negotiations.
A Continent Holding Its Breath
As the expiration date approaches, the fate of AGOA remains uncertain. The decisions made in Washington will have significant implications for millions of workers, businesses, and economies across Africa, redefining the relationship between the continent and the United States for years to come.
| Perspective | Likely Outcome | Driving Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Optimists | AGOA Renewed | Mutual benefits, lobbying efforts. |
| Pessimists | AGOA Expires | "America First" policy, preference for bilateral deals. |
| Pragmatists | Short-Term Extension | Allows time for negotiations on a successor framework. |
