Cyril Ramaphosa's Presidency: Analysts Dismiss Resignation Speculation
Despite recent reports and speculation suggesting President Cyril Ramaphosa might resign, political analysts argue he remains secure in office. Two leading experts believe a resignation is unlikely as there's no immediate crisis or overwhelming scandal to warrant such a move, and the current "balance of forces" favors his continued leadership within the ANC.
Dismissing the Resignation Rumors
Weekend reports indicated that Ramaphosa was considering stepping down after the upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg at the end of November. These reports also mentioned his recent praise of DA governance in municipalities, fueling further speculation about a potential departure. Some rumors even suggested that Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe would serve as acting president, while Deputy President Paul Mashatile would remain sidelined.
Dirk Kotzé, a political analyst, stated that a presidential resignation would require a "huge scandal or crisis" that would make his position untenable. He added, "At the moment, there is no crisis or scandal involving the president that would warrant him resigning. It is highly unlikely that such a resignation will happen." The scandal would need to be severe enough to potentially cause the collapse of the ANC or a national crisis.
The Mechanics of Presidential Removal
Kotzé clarified that a president is removed through a motion of no confidence in parliament, not through a political recall by a party. Reasons for removal include a "serious violation of the constitution or the law," "serious misconduct," or "inability to perform the functions of office." He highlighted that even former President Thabo Mbeki had to resign of his own accord, as the ANC's "recall" mechanism is unofficial.
Kotzé further remarked, "I am not sure about the motivation of those who say the president will resign... I don’t see anyone who can replace him at the moment."
Ramaphosa's Support Base and Political Landscape
Independent political analyst Sandile Swana emphasized that Ramaphosa is in a strong position, supported by the political right and centre-right, big business, and unified supporters. He is also shielded from left-wing pressure by parties like the DA, FF Plus, IFP, and the Patriotic Alliance (PA). These parties are reinforced by big business, which played a crucial role in establishing the government of national unity (GNU) last year.
"At this point in time, the balance of forces does not compel Ramaphosa to resign... But those who put him in office – big business, the DA, the conservatives – still want him there," Swana explained. He also noted that parties like uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) and the EFF haven't created sufficient pressure to force Ramaphosa's resignation.
ANC's Uncertainty and Potential Succession Scenarios
According to sources within the ANC's top seven, the party is currently unsure how to proceed if President Cyril Ramaphosa follows through with his reported plan to resign after the upcoming G20 summit. The president reportedly hasn't discussed these plans with his colleagues, leading to uncertainty about succession.
One national official stated that they believe Ramaphosa is indeed considering an exit but are unclear about the subsequent events. The most likely scenario would be for Deputy President Paul Mashatile to take over. However, there are rumors that ANC national chairman Gwede Mantashe could potentially serve as acting president until the next conference. The potential power struggle is evident in how the ANC must navigate this potential shift.
Advice to Ramaphosa: See Out His Term
An anonymous ANC national official voiced opposition to presidents not finishing their terms, emphasizing the disruption caused to both the government and the party. They stated, "I do not support a president not finishing his term... It is an unnecessary thing that disrupts the functioning of the government and the ANC. I will never support that." This official indicated that they would advise Ramaphosa to complete his term if given the opportunity.
