Sam McKewon's Big Ten picks: P.J. Fleck goes west looking for a late-night win
When P.J. Fleck takes a team west of Scottsbluff, he has a lot of fun.
Now in his ninth year at Minnesota, he's coached the Gophers in four games out west, and won them all. Two routs — 48-14 over Oregon State and 30-0 over Colorado — and two nailbiters, 38-35 over Fresno State and 21-17 over UCLA.
He’s doing something right, even as he shrugged it off at Monday’s press conference.
“It’s its own entity,” Fleck said. “Anytime you play an opponent, you do everything you can to beat that particular opponent, whether on the East Coast, north, south, west…we put together the best plan we possibly can to make sure we can play our best football from 9:30 p.m. central to almost 1 a.m. central on our bodies.”
Yes, this one kicks off at 9:30. Nebraska kicked off vs. Fresno State at 9:40 back in 2014 — 99 degree at kickoff! — scored two touchdowns in the opening five minutes of the game, and never did I wish the end of a game sooner. Fleck said Minnesota will focus on getting good sleep during the trip to Berkeley to play in one of the nation’s prettiest venues.
It’ll be the first real test for Minnesota quarterback Drake Lindsey, the 6-foot-5, 230-pound redshirt freshman who has thrown for 429 yards just 44 attempts.
“He’s shown he can handle himself in a lot of high-pressure situations,” Fleck said of Lindsey, who traveled with the team last season. Lindsey looks and plays different than the guys Fleck has tended to prefer, Tanner Morgan and Max Brosmer, who were smaller, more accurate game managers. Minnesota is clearly trying to jolt its downfield passing game, which for the last two years had seemed limited by quarterback arm strength.
"He's a really good player,” Cal coach Justin Wilcox said of Lindsey at a press conference. “He can throw the ball downfield, he's big, and he's tough to get down.”
The Bears have their own freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who might be the nation’s best first-year signal caller. A top-100 recruit in the 2025 class — behold the revenue-sharing era, that Cal would be able to get this guy —Sagapolutele has completed 69% of his passes in wins over Oregon State and Texas Southern.
“It looks like he’s played at Cal a long time,” Fleck said.
Cal has had to rebuild its offense after its quarterback (to Indiana) top two running backs (to Oklahoma and UCLA) and top two pass-catchers (to Texas and Nebraska) all transferred in the offseason. What was NU’s gain in Nyziah Hunter was Wilcox’s loss.
But the Bears used the portal, too. Back Kendrick Raphael came over from NC State. A receiver transferred in from UNLV. A corner is on his third team after playing at James Madison and South Florida. So it goes.
The Gophers are favored by 2 1/2 points, indicating the tossup nature of the game. Go with Fleck’s track record, even if Cal seems to have the slightly better QB.
My pick: Minnesota 24 California 21
More games:
Nebraska vs. Houston Christian
Time: 11 a.m.
TV: FS1
Line: No line
Sam’s Take: Can the Huskers start their engines for a second straight week in the second half? The midday heat may slow down NU, but only a little bit.
Pick: Nebraska 56 Houston Christian 7
Wisconsin at Alabama
Time: 11 a.m.
TV: ABC
Line: Alabama by 20 1/2
Sam’s Take: Don’t look for the Crimson Tide, down a game it never expected to lose at Florida State, to show much mercy to the Badgers, who’d have to play a perfect game on offense to keep with Alabama. The brutal portion of Wisconsin’s schedule begins.
Pick: Alabama 41 Wisconsin 14
USC at Purdue
Time: 2:30 p.m.
TV: CBS
Line: USC by 20 1/2
Sam’s Take: The Trojans can’t possibly keep averaging 11.27 yards — and 1.1 points! — per play, and coach Barry Odom’s defense will be up to at least that much of a task. But the USC train keeps rolling.
Pick: USC 38 Purdue 17
Oregon at Northwestern
Time: 11 a.m.
TV: Fox
Line: Oregon by 27 1/2
Sam’s Take: Does that lakefront stadium take 14 points away from road team that enters there? Perhaps! The most points any opponent has scored at Martin Stadium is 41 points — Indiana last season. Maybe that accounts for the lower-than-expected line.
Pick: Oregon 45 Northwestern 14
Ohio State vs. Ohio
Time: 6:30 p.m.
TV: Peacock
Line: Ohio State by 30 1/2
Sam’s Take: If the Buckeyes can drop the likely MAC champions — that fully handled West Virginia last week — Ryan Day may have another national title square on his hands.
Pick: Ohio State 38 Ohio 14
Michigan vs. Central Michigan
Time: 11 a.m.
TV: BTN
Line: Michigan by 27 1/2
Sam’s Take: The Wolverines’ interim head coach, Biff Poggi, has shown before he likes to wear a t-shirt with the sleeves cut off and pair that with a visor. The beer league golfer. We’ll see if he classes it up for blue blood Michigan.
Pick: Michigan 35 Central Michigan 10
Iowa vs. Massachusetts
Time: 6:30 p.m.
TV: BTN
Line: Iowa by 35 1/2
Sam’s Take: Get right game for the Hawkeyes’ defense and special teams, which had a handful of breakdowns in their 16-13 loss at Iowa State. Iowa’s offense, riddled with injuries — the latest is tight end Addison Ostrenga — ranks 124th nationally in yards per play.
Pick: Iowa 36 Massachusetts 2
Illinois vs. Western Michigan
Time: 11 a.m.
TV: FS1
Line: Illinois by 27 1/2
Sam’s Take: You could see the Illini peeking ahead to next week’s big game at Indiana, but a moderate effort, in front of a morning crowd in Champaign, should be enough for Luke Altmyer and Co.
Pick: Illinois 35 Western Michigan 10
UCLA vs. New Mexico
Time: 9 p.m.
TV: BTN
Line: UCLA by 15 1/2
Sam’s Take: The Bruins are bound to play in a quiet, almost empty Rose Bowl Friday night. If they lose, coach Deshaun Foster may not make it through the bye week. UNM has athletes on offense, including tight end Dorian Thomas.
Pick: UCLA 24 New Mexico 17
Indiana vs. Indiana State
Time: Friday at 5:30 p.m.
TV: BTN
Line: No line
Sam’s Take: The cushy schedule ride for coach Curt Cignetti’s crew ends after this Saturday, but IU’s run game appears to be legit, averaging 311 yards per game and 6.48 yards per carry.
Pick: Indiana 43 Indiana State 16
Michigan State vs. Youngstown State
Time: 2:30 p.m.
TV: BTN
Line: No line
Sam’s Take: YSU quarterback Beau Brungard is one of the top stars of FCS with 236 passing yards and…409 rushing yards!...in two games this season. He’s averaging 10.8 yards per carry, to boot. Michigan State will have a plan, but don’t expect a walkover win.
Pick: Michigan State 31 Youngstown State 17
Penn State vs. Villanova
Time: 2:30 p.m.
TV: FS1
Line: No line
Sam’s Take: If it were basketball, it’d be a different story.
Pick: Penn State 48 Villanova 3
Rutgers vs. Norfolk State
Time: 2:30 p.m.
TV: BTN
Line: No line
Sam’s Take: The reason to tune in here is Michael Vick, the former college and NFL star who’s in his first season at Norfolk State’s head coach. If he keeps things competitive on Saturday, that’d be a win. Don’t expect it.
Pick: Rutgers 52 Norfolk State 10
Maryland vs. Towson
Time: 11 a.m.
Network: Peacock
Line: No line
Sam’s Take: Towson beat Norfolk State 27-7, so, in theory, this game should be more competitive than the one in Piscataway. Former Oregon State receiver John Dunmore is a standout player.
Pick: Maryland 33 Towson 14
Last week straight up: 17-1
Last week against the spread: 7-6
This season SU: 34-2
